Atlanta Falcons +4 @ New England Patriots -4

Okay, so I was wrong about the Patriots last week.  I’ll admit it.  Mainly because my record is posted on the site anyway…  but I was wrong.  Anyway, this week the Pats take on the Falcons and it’s time to get engine going.  At 1-1, and Patriots will be hard pressed to fall to 1-2 in this young 2009 season.

The game is in New England and the Pats are 20-4 straight up in their last 24 games at home.  To make matters better for the Patriots, Atlanta has struggled on the road of late, even after going to the playoffs last season – a mere 5-13 in their last 18 away from the Georgia Dome.  Is it Matt Ryan?  Does he struggle to win on the road?  Perhaps, but if nothing else, he’ll struggle against Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense this week.

Belichick had never lost to a rookie until last week, and I find it hard to believe that he’ll lose to a first time opponent again this year.  I know that Matt Ryan is a second year player, but he’s never faced Bill’s defensive scheme, and sophomore slumps are very common for NFL QBs.  I also know that his nickname is “Matty Ice” and that sounds kind of cool to a lot of people, but come on, we all know Beast was always better anyway.

Bill Belichick is 2-0 against the Falcons for his career, beating them in 2001 and 2005, both games played in Atlanta.  The Patriots need this win a lot more than the Falcons do, especially with the Jets winning last week and Miami showing us something by playing the Colts very tough.  Being a four point favorite is a slap in the face to a team who went 16-0 the last time Tom Brady was healthy, and  -4 points at home = a mere 1 point favorite in the grand scheme of handicapping (since you get 3 just for being at home). The Patriot’s high powdered offense will be ready to get things going here in NFL Week 3.  Another important notice is that Tony Gonzalez has a bad back, and he won’t be near 100% for the game on Sunday.  Patriots all the way this week.

Free NFL Pick: New England -4