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NFL Betting System – Bet Factors

Posted by admin | NFL Fantasy Football Analysis | Tuesday 26 May 2009 7:48 pm

An Example of some Bet Factors Analyzed by PKF:

1.  General Statistics

a. Offense – total, pass, rush, points scored, 3rd down %

b. Defense – total, pass, rush, points allowed, 3rd down

c. Points scored on the road vs. points scored at home

d. 2006 & 2007 turnover ratio

e. Quarterback Passing/Rushing/Rating (2006 & 2007)

f. Interceptions vs. Interceptions thrown (2006 & 2007)

g. Sacks vs. Sacks allowed (2006 & 2007)

2. Wins & Loses (2006 & 2007)

a. overall season wins/losses

b. playoff appearances/wins

c. home & road wins/losses

d. Primetime Games wins/losses

e. Divisional wins/losses

f. conference wins/losses

g. interconference wins/losses

h. West Coast/East Coast travel wins/losses

3.  Skill

a. Overall skill player ranking (out of 32 teams – determined week of game)

b. Number of impact players (impact players – determined week of game)

c. Quarterback

1. Arm strength

2. Accuracy rating (2006 & 2007)

3. Mobility

4. Success % vs. overall defenses ranked 1 to 10

d. Starting RB based on rushing statistics (2006 & 2075)

e. Defensive Sacks/Hurries vs. QB mobility

f. Defensive Interceptions vs. QB skill within a given system

4.  QB Experience

a. Rookie or Veteran status

b. Years in league

c. Years as a starter

d. overall regular season win % as a starter

e. win % where game is to be played

f. win % against opposing team

g. Playoff Experience

h. Super Bowl Experience

i. QB Primetime Game experience

j. win % vs. opposing coach

5.  Head Coach

a. years in league

b. years with team

c. head coaching experience

d. head coaching home/road win %

e. head coach primetime game win %

f. Offensive or Defensive background

g. Has previously coached “X” players on opposing team

h. Has previously coached opposing team

i. win % where game is to be played

j. win % vs. opposing team

k. win % vs. opposing head coach

l. playoff win %; if applicable

6. Special Teams

a. FG % (2007)

b. FG attempted (2007)

c. Punt Average (2007)

d. Kicks/Punts Returned for TD (2007)

e. TD allowed on special teams (2007)

f. total punts (2007)

g. total kickoffs (2007)

h. total career kick/punt returns by a player

7. Injuries

a. total season-ending injuries (2007)

b. career season-ending injuries to a QB

c. current minor injuries

d. performances with current injuries

e. injuries (out of lineup)

f. key-player injuries (key players determined in week of game)

g. players coming off an injury

h. player’s history of games played when coming off an injury

i. player’s significance in games played coming off an injury

8. Divisional Games

a. rivalries

b. all-time record of rivalry

c. current strength of rivalry

d. current players understanding of rivalry

e. current players 2007 performance against rival

f. sweep the previous season?

g. Totem pole placement within division (2004 – 2007)

9. Venue

a. outdoor or indoor

b. natural or artificial surface

c. domed or no dome

d. loudness rating

e. is stadium new? (2000 to 2007stats)

f. win % in similar venues (2004 to 2007)

g. home team’s win % in venue (2004 to 2007)

h. home team win % in venue based on month (2003 to 2007)

10. Overall Coaching

a. rating of head coach

b. rating of offensive & defensive coordinators

c. number of first year offensive & defensive coordinator on team

d. first year coordinator’s previous title/experience

e. previous records between offensive & defensive coordinators

f. significance of new coordinator (2006 to 2007)

11. Personnel

a. key off season pickups

b. 2006 NFL draft

c. significance of rookies – Rounds 1 to 3 (drafted players)

d. team’s history of success with the draft

e. head coaches’ success history with rookies

f. head coaches success history with draft

g. head coaches utilization history with free agent pickups

h. head coaches past utilization of rookie players

12. Weather (projected)

a. Head coaches win % in cold/mild/hot weather (2006 & 2007)

b. QB win % in cold/mild/hot weather (2006 & 2007)

c. head coach win % in snow/rain games

d. QB win % in snow/rain games

e. hometown venue climate vs. away venue climate

f. propensity for strong wind

g. altitude with regards to weather

AND MANY, MANY MORE FACTORS, THAT WILL NOT BE DISCLOSED TO THE PUBLIC – THIS IS WHAT MAKES MY SYSTEM SO IN-DEPTH & CONCLUSIVE.  I LOOK AT ALL OF THE NORMAL FACTORS, AND THEN  GO THE EXTRA 100 YARDS TO BRING YOU THE BEST POSSIBLE INSIGHT AND PRO FOOTBALL PICKS.

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Thanks for Registering!

Posted by Paul | NFL Fantasy Football Analysis | Monday 20 October 2008 1:53 am

Thanks for signing up to the Paul Knows Football network!  Keep your eyes open for emails, as Free NFL Picks and analysis will be coming your way very shortly.  I will look forward to winning with you this football season.

- Paul

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