San Diego Chargers +7 @ Pittsburgh Steelers -7

The Steelers are 1-2.  A Super Bowl hangover, if you will.  Pittsburgh had dropped two straight and finds themselves a couple of games behind the division leading Ravens at the moment.  Pittsburgh really doesn’t want to lose three straight, especially with the opportunity to gain ground over the less talented opponents that they will face in weeks 5 and 6.

Phillip Rivers leads the Chargers.  Though the run game has struggled through week 3, Rivers continues to make gains and has carried the team to two victories almost all on his own.  Rivers leads the NFL with just under 1,000 passing yards and has performed exceptionally well in the fourth quarter.  The Steelers have allowed two fourth quarter comeback since week 2.

Pittsburgh has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams, but let’s look at some underlying statistics:

-          In 2008, Pittsburgh barely held on to win 11-10 at Heinz Field

-          In 2007 the teams did not play each other

-          2006 saw a Steelers loss at the hands of the Chargers, 23-13

-          Going back to 2005, the Steelers won in San Diego, but by a mere 2 points

The point is, there has been a rivalry created at the hands of the NFL.  Just like the Colts and Patriots magically play each other every year somehow, the Steelers/Chargers game is becoming just as hyped each season.  These games are almost always close, just as a divisional game might be, and the line here is way too big for the Steelers to cover at this very point in 2009.  Things can change, but for now, the Steelers just don’t have it.

Just looking at the stats, the Chargers are ranked #2 in passing versus the Steelers 15^th ranked pass defense.  Pittsburgh has a slight edge in the running game, but it’s very slight – only a 15 yards per game differential.  If Troy Polamalu is somehow back this week, I can see the Steelers pulling out a TOUGH win.  However, it will still be very hard for them to cover the spread due to the toughness and veracity that the Chargers bring each time these teams faceoff.  If Troy’s not back, which is most likely, I think it’s tough for the Steelers to even pull off a win this week.  I like San Diego plus the points this coming Sunday night.

Free NFL Pick: San Diego Chargers +7

Atlanta Falcons +4 @ New England Patriots -4

Okay, so I was wrong about the Patriots last week.  I’ll admit it.  Mainly because my record is posted on the site anyway…  but I was wrong.  Anyway, this week the Pats take on the Falcons and it’s time to get engine going.  At 1-1, and Patriots will be hard pressed to fall to 1-2 in this young 2009 season.

The game is in New England and the Pats are 20-4 straight up in their last 24 games at home.  To make matters better for the Patriots, Atlanta has struggled on the road of late, even after going to the playoffs last season – a mere 5-13 in their last 18 away from the Georgia Dome.  Is it Matt Ryan?  Does he struggle to win on the road?  Perhaps, but if nothing else, he’ll struggle against Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense this week.

Belichick had never lost to a rookie until last week, and I find it hard to believe that he’ll lose to a first time opponent again this year.  I know that Matt Ryan is a second year player, but he’s never faced Bill’s defensive scheme, and sophomore slumps are very common for NFL QBs.  I also know that his nickname is “Matty Ice” and that sounds kind of cool to a lot of people, but come on, we all know Beast was always better anyway.

Bill Belichick is 2-0 against the Falcons for his career, beating them in 2001 and 2005, both games played in Atlanta.  The Patriots need this win a lot more than the Falcons do, especially with the Jets winning last week and Miami showing us something by playing the Colts very tough.  Being a four point favorite is a slap in the face to a team who went 16-0 the last time Tom Brady was healthy, and  -4 points at home = a mere 1 point favorite in the grand scheme of handicapping (since you get 3 just for being at home). The Patriot’s high powdered offense will be ready to get things going here in NFL Week 3.  Another important notice is that Tony Gonzalez has a bad back, and he won’t be near 100% for the game on Sunday.  Patriots all the way this week.

Free NFL Pick: New England -4

New England Patriots -3.5 @ New York Jets +3.5

Ok, it’s not like me to give out two free picks in one week’s time.  Why you ask?  Because I’m a cheap bastard?  Because I hate typing long copy?  Neither, actually.  But man, I think I’m onto something here.  Take this as you will, as it’s not placed against my 127 Point PKF Betting System, but  I think the Patriots are going to route the Jets.

Everyone thinks it’s going to be close because it’s divisional and in New York.  Rookie head coach (who everyone has on a pedestal for some reason) and a Rookie QB vs. Belichik.  Billy OWNS rookie QBs.  He’s never lost to one.  Maybe he never will?  Brady looked like the super star that he is on Monday night.  I think it took him a half or so to gain his confidence back, but damn, that’s got to be the fastest turn around ever off of an ACL injury.

I’m pretty sure his arm actually got stronger too.  He was firing balls in there left and right.  Ever notice that when talking about a strong armed QB you have to use military jargon?  “Man, that guy’s got a riffle…”  or “ahh, he’s got a cannon for an arm.”  Anyway, Pats win no matter what in my opinion.  I was questioning whether or not they would cover the spread, though, until I read an article from the Boston Globe yesterday, entitled “Ryan has ratcheted up rivalry with Patriots.”  The article basically goes on to explain how Rex Ryan has been antagonizing the patriots all offseason, and seemingly has no respect for their three Super Bowl victories this decade.  He talks about beating up on the Patriots and even calls out some key figures.

I’m telling you guys, this is setting up to be a classic Belichik routing.  Bill keeps his mouth shut, doesn’t say a word – then he blows the Jets out of the water and Rex Ryan looks like a moron.  For some reason everyone’s ready to put the Jets in the playoffs after 1 win.  It’s a joke.  Ask yourself this: have the Ravens beat Belichik any time in the last 5 years under Rex Ryan’s tyrannical defense?  So why would they lose now, just because he’s a head coach? If nothing else, it’s safe to say that the man doesn’t know much, or give a damn about offense (I know his Dad didn’t, and the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree).  Am I saying the Jets suck, or that they won’t make the playoffs?  No.  Am I saying they’ll lose this Sunday?  Well, let me be clear; they probably will lose.  And they’re probably not going to cover, either.  I’m talking a 2 TD+ victory here, folks.

In a different article from ESPN.com, Jets defender Kerry Rhodes took his shot at insulting that Pats.  “We will hit him more than six times. I promise you that,” Rhodes said.  “I’m sure if somebody is around his leg, or he feels pressure below, he’s not going to step into his throw.”  In even more cocky attempts at trash talking, Kerry Rhodes expressed that Ney York wanted to embarrass the Patriots; “Not just go out there and try to win, try to embarrass them. Try to make them feel bad when they leave here. We don’t want to just beat them. We want to send a message to them, ‘We’re not backing down from you and we expect to win this game, and it’s not going to be luck, it’s not going to be a mistake.’ ”

The news, the stories, the commentary – it’s everywhere!  This fired up back on Wednesday and it’s only getting worse as the week 2 matchup approaches.  Emotion is going to bring the Pats game into overdrive.  And who the hell is Kerry Rhodes?  Sounds like an American gymnast who helped win the gold in ‘96 to me.  If people don’t know who you are, keep your mouth shut.  Pats beat up on the Jets Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: New England -3.5

Seattle +1 @ San Francisco -1

Come on guys… really?  What is Vegas thinking?  As Vince Lombardi once said on the famous NFL Films reel, “what the hell’s going on out there?”  Could this be a “trap” game?  A trap game in which Seattle has won 7 of the last 10 meetings?

Ok – let’s go over the basics before anything else.  Points scored, points against, point differential – all favor the Seattle Seahawks on a fairly large scale.  Passing yards and rushing yards you ask?  They go Seattle’s way also.  Seattle even leads the turnover differential side of things by 3.  So what does San Francisco have to offer?  Is SF a “sleeper team” again for the third, unsuccessful year in a row?

Let me tell you something folks.  While the 49ers are a little bit better, and they improve each year, they are not a good team by any stretch – at least not thus far.  Seattle is coming back strong this year, and there is no doubt in my mind that they will take the NFL West over AZ and SF (I don’t need to mention St. Louis…).

Seattle is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 NFL games, and 9-3 straight up the last 12 times that they’ve played in San Francisco.  Why does this matter, you aks?  Because neither of these teams are terribly different than they were three or four years ago.  Seattle loves to play in SF, and the 49ers are a mere 2-3-1 in their last 6 at home – not to mention that the Seahawks have taken 3 of the last 4 between these teams.  Look for Seattle to take it to San Francisco this Sunday in the bay area.

Free NFL Pick: Seattle +1

Pittsburgh takes on Tennessee tomorrow night in the 2009 NFL Season Opener. Since my premium picks will be primarily Monday Night Football games this season, I figured I’d offer the season opener as a freebie.

Tennessee +6 @ Pittsburgh -6

Let’s look back at the last several seasons. NFL teams who win the Super Bowl always open up the season with a primetime game. Almost every time, at least in the past decade, the Super Bowl Champs win their week one matchups. Let’s go back at least a few years…

2001 – The Ravens take care of the Bears
2002 – Patriots defeat the Steelers 30-16 at Gillett Stadium
2003 – Tampa Bay defeats Philadelphia opening night at Lincoln Financial Field
2004 – The Patriots down the Colts, winning by a FG
2005 – The patriots win again, opening night vs. Randy Moss and the Raiders
2006 – The Steelers defeat Miami on Thursday Night football
2007 – The Colts beat New Orleans, again on TNF
2008 – The G-Men from New York take care of Washington by a TD+, Thursday Night
2009 – Where do we place our wager? I think we’re onto something..

What do all of these games/teams have in common? Each matchup showcased a Super Bowl Champion, who played their opening game the following season under the lights, and won. Not only did each of the last six Super Bowl winners grab Ws opening day, but, they also covered against the spread (they were favored every time, of course).

Thursday night will be no different, as a tough, physical Steelers squad takes on the Titans. The Super Bowl Champs return with a powerful running attack, a stingy defense, and a certain confidence that they have not possessed since September of 2006. They took care of the Titans fairly easily last year in the playoffs, and I have no reason to believe that Pittsburgh won’t beat them again this season – especially with no Haynesworth. Opening night in Pittsburgh is money, and I’m all over the Steelers (even giving away the points). These opening night games tend to be 7-10 point affairs and I’d be prepared for something similar this coming Thursday.

Other notes: Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, while Tennessee is a mere 3-5-1. I know it’s opening week, but this still holds weight. Pittsburgh is also 13-3 at home over the past two seasons.

Take: Pittsburgh -6